Individual Perceptions of Mortality Decline

Ryan D. Edwards, RAND

Demographers are well aware of the vast decreases in mortality among industrialized countries during the past century. Although there are differences of opinion, they generally expect mortality decline to continue into the future. But how do individuals perceive the process of mortality decline? Previous research has explored individual survivorship expectations in the cross section and among a cohort over time. In this paper, I examine the evolution of these perceptions across multiple cohorts over time in order to gauge how individuals perceive the process of mortality decline. I use data on subjective survivorship probabilities in the U.S. Health and Retirement Study, focusing on expectations measured in 1992, 1998, and 2004. I also discuss trends in the variation of expectations across individuals and groups and relate it to the variation in mortality outcomes.