Who Is Hurt by Procyclical Mortality?

Ryan D. Edwards, RAND

There is renewed interest in understanding how periodic fluctuations in mortality, and by extension in health, are related to fluctuations in economic conditions. The traditional perspective, that economic recessions are bad for health and mortality just as they are bad in economic terms, is increasingly challenged by new findings that suggest the reverse, at least in developed countries. Several recent studies have found that mortality rises above its trend during periods of rapid economic activity, not stagnation. The epidemiology behind these patterns still suggests that socioeconomically vulnerable populations may well be those at risk during periods of procyclical mortality. Traffic accidents, stress-induced cardiovascular disease, and smoking and alcohol related illness may be disproportionately borne by lower classes, and they appear to increase during good times. In this study, I examine mortality by cause and socioeconomic status during the recessions and expansions of the 1980s using the National Longitudinal Study.