Demographic Trends and Enrollment Decline in Wisconsin's Public Schools

Richelle Winkler, University of Wisconsin at Madison
Sara Lazenby, University of Wisconsin at Madison

Between 1998 and 2003, 63% of Wisconsin's public school districts experienced declining enrollment. Declining enrollment has profound implications for schools: funding is tied to enrollment numbers and declining enrollment often means that administrators must consider school closures, cutting resources, and reducing staff. This paper examines the demographic and socio-economic trends behind enrollment decline, including the impact of the Baby Boom generation and trends in births, migration, and racial/ethnic population change. We conduct statewide and regional analyses to examine how demographic trends and enrollments vary across different parts of the state; and we employ factor analysis to categorize school districts by socioeconomic characteristics and examine enrollment trends for these "types" of districts. Finally, we use cohort component methods to project enrollment for various subsets of school districts. Throughout, we address questions such as: Will decline continue and to what extent? Where will decline occur? What conditions might mediate enrollment decline?