Age at First Marriage, Time to First Marital Birth, and Pace of Subsequent Childbearing in Italy and Spain, with Comparisons to the USA

Michael Rendall, RAND
Encarnación Aracil, Universidad Complutense
Paola Di Giulio, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Alessandra De Rose, Università di Roma "La Sapienza"
Filomena Racioppi, Università di Roma "La Sapienza"
Antonio Parisi, University of Rome

Lowest-low fertility in Mediterranean countries has been linked to strong family institutions that may paradoxically act as barriers to family formation. Using the USA as a standard for comparison, the present study investigates for Italy and Spain the relative importance for completed fertility of (1) low rates of childbearing among never-married women; (2) late entry to marriage; (3) long intervals between marriage and first birth; and (4) slow rates of parity progression after the first birth. Birth probabilities are estimated simultaneously by age, marital status and duration since either marriage or the previous births by combining population and survey data in each country.