Spatial Modeling of HIV Prevalence in Cameroon, Kenya, and Tanzania

Livia Montana, ORC Macro
Melissa Neuman, ORC Macro
Vinod Mishra, ORC Macro
Rathavuth Hong, ORC Macro

The 2004 Cameroon Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), the 2004 Tanzania HIV/AIDS Indicator Survey (THIS), and the 2003 Kenya DHS are among the first national population-based household surveys to include HIV testing among adults. These surveys contain individual HIV test results for women and men, as well as the full set of behavioral, social, and demographic information for the individuals and their households. Geographic coordinates of the communities where survey respondents lived were collected in each survey. The coordinates were used to estimate spatial indicators such as distance to roads, health facilities, and the hierarchy of nearby towns and cities. A model was developed to predict HIV prevalence. The predictions were applied to population density distribution surfaces to map sub-provincial concentrations of HIV prevalence and to assess access to HIV-related health services in each country.