Why is LAUSD's Enrollment Declining if the Los Angeles Region's Population is Growing?

Valerie Edwards, Los Angeles Unified School District
Mary Prichard, Los Angeles Unified School District
Erick Posner, Los Angeles Unified School District
Michael Gainor, Los Angeles Unified School District

Here we look into possible explanations for the Los Angeles Unified School District’s "trend-bucking" behavior by examining and contrasting LAUSD student population dynamics relative to the populations of LA City, LA County and Southern California. Our working hypothesis is that the population growth observed in these areas is not fueled by increases in households with school-aged children who would be candidates for attending LAUSD, but rather by increases in households with few or no children. Further, although we had been expecting a decline in LAUSD enrollment due to a decrease in LA County births since 1990, the decline has been happening at a faster rate then we would have expected if it were being driven by decreasing births alone. Preliminary evidence suggests that out-migration is taking place among households whose children would have historically attended LAUSD, and that this out-migration has been accelerating the rate of LAUSD's enrollment decline.