Demographic and Health Predictors of Disability Change and Non-Change in Late Life

Michelle Cheuk, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

For older, non-disabled people, what variables predict change or constancy in disability status over a two-year time period? Do these same variables predict change or constancy for people with an IADL or ADL disability? Three waves of data from the LSOA II are used to analyze the effects of age, sex, education, marital status, prior disability status, and self-rated health on disability transitions. Age, prior disability status, and self-rated health generally are stronger predictors of disability transitions than sex, education, and marital status. Predictors of transitions differ for independent and disabled people. Among disabled people, variables have similar effects whether the disability is IADL or ADL. Predictors of stable states differ for all three disability statuses: health variables are the strongest predictors for independent people; most variables are significant but of limited magnitude for IADL disabled people; and only prior ADL disability is a significant predictor for ADL disabled people.