Family-Building Processes and Fertility Transition in Ethiopia: An Analysis Using Parity Progression Ratios

Gebre-Egziabher Kiros, Florida A&M University
Vasantha K. Kandiah, United Nations

It is known that the pace of fertility decline is the key factor in shaping the demographic structure of the developing world. However, the link between family-building process and the pace of fertility decline has not gained much attention. This study uses a conceptual framework of the family-building process, a series of stages through which women move, from marriage to first birth, from first to second birth, and so on. We employ period parity progression ratios to examine fertility trends. Ethiopia is a very interesting case because the total fertility in Addis Ababa is below replacement level and demographic decomposition of recent fertility decline has indicated that a major component of the decline is delayed marriage among recent cohorts of women. We use data from the 2000 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) which includes 15,367 women aged 15-49, permitting separate analysis by place of residence, education, and birth order.