Multivariate Analysis of Parity-Progression-Based Measures of the Total Fertility Rate and Its Components Using Individual-Level Data

Robert D. Retherford, East West Center
Naohiro Ogawa, Nihon University
Rikiya Matsukura, Nihon University

This paper develops multivariate methods for analyzing (1) effects of socioeconomic variables on the total fertility rate; and (2) effects of socioeconomic variables on the trend in the total fertility rate. For the multivariate methods to be applicable, the total fertility rate must be calculated from parity progression ratios (PPRs). We also consider the total marital fertility rate, the individual PPRs themselves, and mean and median failure times (which in this case are mean and median age at first marriage and mean and median birth intervals). The methods are applicable to either period data or cohort data. The methods are illustrated by application to data from the 1993, 1998, and 2003 DHS surveys in the Philippines.