Aging, the Lifecycle, and Macroeconomics: An International Perspective

Andrew Mason, University of Hawaii at Manoa
Ronald Lee, University of California, Berkeley

This paper will analyze the macroeconomic effects of changes in population age structure that arise because productivity and consumption vary over the lifecycle. The paper draws on a comparative international project covering the populations of Brazil, Chile, China, France, India, Indonesia, Japan, the Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, and the United States. Analyses of recent household surveys, administrative records, national income and product accounts, and other data sources yield estimates of age profiles of consumption, production and age reallocations achieved primarily through familial support systems, public transfer programs, and capital accumulation. These data will be used to simulate the changes in support ratios due to projected changes in the population age distribution and to assess the implications for capital accumulation, labor productivity, and economic growth. We will consider how variations in the policy environment, i.e., the systems for reallocating resources across age, influence the economic implications of population aging.