Measuring the Timing and Pace of Fertility Decline in Brazil Using a Bayesian Spatial Estimation Procedure

Joseph E. Potter, University of Texas at Austin
Renato M. Assuncao, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
Carl P. Schmertmann, Florida State University
Suzana M. Cavenaghi, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE)

Using Bayesian spatial statistical methods, we develop and apply a procedure for fitting logistic curves to the fertility and mortality transitions taking place in 511 small regions of Brazil over a forty year period. Between 1960 and 2000, fertility fell dramatically in Brazil, but this transition started at different times, and proceeded with differential speed in different parts of the country. The nature of these differences, and the degree to which they are associated with differences in the local development trajectories, are pertinent to major debates concerning the determinants of this phenomenon. With a remarkable store of microdata from five censuses and this method, we are able to test some of the major hypotheses advanced by authors such as Coale, Cleland and Wilson, and Bongaarts and Watkins. This method can be applied in other historical and contemporary settings with the sparse time series of estimates available from censuses.