Spatial Analysis of County Population Change in the United States During the 1990s

Matthew J Moehr, University of Wisconsin at Madison

The current study addresses the demographic and geographic aspects of population change in the United States during the 1990s. Census data and vital statistics are used to calculate natural increase rates and net migration rates for all 3070 counties in the contiguous United States. The components of population change are broken down into three race/ethnicity groups - black, Hispanic, and white - and a series of exploratory and regression analyses are conducted to examine the relationship between natural increase and net migration. The natural increase rates of blacks, Hispanics, and whites are each significant predictors of total net migration rates for a county. The data also provides evidence for spatial processes such as diffusion and regionalization in the patterns of population change.